Trend and determinants of COVID 19 pandemic in a district of Central India: A cross sectional study

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus outbreak was originated from Wuhan, China, was first reported in India on 30th January 2020. The impact of an epidemic depends on the number of persons infected, infection transmissibility and the spectrum of clinical severity. To determine the impact of outbreak, analysis of the existing record was done. The objective of this study was to determine the demographic factors, case fatality rate, its association and trend was observed among positive cases reported in Gwalior district. Covid-19 related data collected at the IDSP unit of Gwalior District was analysed. A total of 11281 case reported between 30th March to 11th October was included and their recorded data was analysed using mean, median, chi-square test and logistic regression analysis. The study shows that Mean age of the cases was 39.95±16.75 while their median age was 38.0 (27.0-52.0). Maximum cases were in the age group of 21-30 (25.6%). On assessing the current status, 94.7% patients were discharged from isolation/treatment facility, 4% case were active while 1.3% died. Risk Ratio (Odds Ratio) for death was calculated for different characteristics. It was concluded from the present study that the outcome of disease was found statistically significant in age groups, residence in containment area and isolation status among patients by using logistic regression analysis. Also, no gender predilection of the disease and its mortality.