Seismic risk assessment : with an application to the South African insurance industry

Abstract

This study provides a seismic risk assessment for various sites in South Africa and discusses the possible impact of seismic activity on the South African insurance industry in the light of this analysis. The work begins with an introduction and an historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is presented. The work continues with an application of the described methodology to several sites around the country. The result of the investigation is that the seismic risk faced by South Africa is non-negligible. Keywords: Seismic risk, seismic hazard, expected damage, South Africa, short-term insurance South African Actuarial Journal: 2003 3: 1-28