Analysis and Construction of the Macro-monitoring Indicators Based on the Currency Crisis

Abstract

The currency crises were divided into the macro-economic vulnerability crisis, the declining competitiveness crisis; the self- fulfilling crisis; the led crisis by bank-crisis; the debt default crisis; the reversal crisis of capital flow; and the contagious crisis. Against the study on the financial stability and the early-warning systems having the lack of the predicting external crisis and monitoring internal risk, the analyzing framework of the financial macro-monitoring system based on the currency crises was proposed. A three-layer indicator set being made of the leading indicators was built as a core set, which regarded the six-type currency crises occurring in emerging market as the key, considered the impact of the bank system crisis for the monetary system. The macro-prudential indicators as a feature set would monitor internal risk. An interpretative illustration was progressed to the macro-monitoring indicators including the core set and the feature set.