Was it all about personalization? The determinants of the vote in the 2016 constitutional referendum in Italy

Abstract

In Italy, referenda are relatively common. As Morel (2012) highlights, Italy is one of the countries that uses referenda the most frequently, along with Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Ecuador, and Micronesia. However, none of these other countries have a population as large as Italy’s, and this combination of a large population and frequent use of referenda is what makes it a unique case. In sharp contrast with the Brexit referendum, for which a burgeoning literature has analyzed different aspects of voting behavior (e.g., Becker et al., 2017; Clarke et al., 2017; Goodwin & Heath, 2016; Hobolt, 2016; and Los et al., 2017) the 2016 constitutional referendum in Italy has so far attracted much less attention. While Brexit had profound consequences for the United Kingdom, Europe, and beyond, the Italian referendum “only” led to the resignation of the prime minister (PM), Matteo Renzi. However, the long-term consequences, be they direct or indirect, also had an impact on the next general election in 2018, after which two anti-establishment parties—the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) and Lega (called Lega Nord before the election) formed a coalition, following lengthy negotiations.