Development of agro-climatic grape yield model with future prospective

Abstract

Agriculture sector is most vulnerable to climate change. To predict the crop yield in accordance with the changing climate is a need of hour than choice. To know the climate in advance is crucial for grape growing farmers and grape export agencies for its better planning and security of grape industries from climate change perspective. In the present study, the Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model is developed on monthly scale climatic parameters using correlation, significance and multi-regression analysis approach. The developed model is statistically tested for its predictive ability. The discrepancy ratio, the standard deviation of discrepancy ratio, mean percentage error and standard deviation of mean percentage error for the developed model is obtained as 1.03, 0.19, 0.03% and 0.19 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is carried out for the developed ACGY model using the parametric sensitivity method. In order to know the grape yield for future using developed ACGY model, climate scenarios are generated under Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for three emissions Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Model response variability is carried out to understand the variation of grape yield. It is observed that grape yield is showing adverse variation with the increase in minimum temperature in January and November months, and precipitation in August and November months. Whereas, minimum temperature in April and sum of monthly mean evapotranspiration showing accordance effect on the grape yield. It is recommended the use of ACGY model for grape yield estimations applicable for the present and future climate of the study area based on the predictive capability of developed model.