Applying Grey Model for International Fashion Color Trend Forecasting

IF 1 4区工程技术 Q4 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Journal of Grey System Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI:10.30016/JGS.201112.0005

Li-Xia Chang, Wei-Dong Gao, Ming-wang Shi, R. Pan

引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper made a study on fashion color forecasting by applying GM (1,1) model. It took successive five years fashion colors' suggestion ratio as the time series. Results shows that the GM(1,1) model would provide promising predicting effect with minimum accuracy ratio of 56.46% and maximum accuracy of 88.68%. Besides the 1AGO data processing, we also apply 2AGO data processing to discuss the forecasting accuracy of this model. Results show that the forecasting with 2AGO data processing can predict the future color trend with maximum accuracy ratio of 92.27% and the minimum ratio 79.62%, P value 1.0000. It can be taken as the promising one prediction model for future color trends forecasting.

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灰色模型在国际流行色彩趋势预测中的应用

本文应用GM(1,1)模型对时尚色彩预测进行了研究。以连续五年的时尚色彩建议率为时间序列。结果表明，GM(1,1)模型具有较好的预测效果，最小准确率为56.46%，最大准确率为88.68%。除了1AGO数据处理外，我们还应用2AGO数据处理来讨论该模型的预测精度。结果表明，采用2AGO数据处理的预测方法可以预测未来颜色趋势，最高准确率为92.27%，最低准确率为79.62%，P值为1.0000。它可以作为未来色彩趋势预测的一种有前景的预测模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Grey System 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

43.80%

发文量

审稿时长

1.5 months

期刊介绍： The journal is a forum of the highest professional quality for both scientists and practitioners to exchange ideas and publish new discoveries on a vast array of topics and issues in grey system. It aims to bring forth anything from either innovative to known theories or practical applications in grey system. It provides everyone opportunities to present, criticize, and discuss their findings and ideas with others. A number of areas of particular interest (but not limited) are listed as follows: Grey mathematics- Generator of Grey Sequences- Grey Incidence Analysis Models- Grey Clustering Evaluation Models- Grey Prediction Models- Grey Decision Making Models- Grey Programming Models- Grey Input and Output Models- Grey Control- Grey Game- Practical Applications.