Russian electric power industry until 2035: On the way to full transition to renewable energy sources

Abstract

This study presents two scenarios for the development of the Russian electric power industry for the period up to 2035 — the baseline and the energy transition scenario. The baseline scenario assumes that in the next 15 years the country will implement the policy envisaged by the key energy strategic documents. In the baseline scenario, the share of wind and solar generation will increase slightly — from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.2% in 2035, which will be signifi cantly lower than in the vast majority of the world major economies. The energy transition scenario assumes the abandonment of the construction of new thermal power plants and nuclear power plants and the gradual decommissioning of thermal and nuclear power plants as their service life expires, with replacement by wind and solar power plants. Hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, gas thermal power plants and biomass thermal power plants will collectively account for about 28% of permanent generation by 2035, which will ensure the stability of the energy system. The remaining share of generation will be provided by variable sources — wind and sun in a ratio of 2:1. The energy transition scenario provides for the abandonment of coal generation by 2030, from nuclear generation by 2060.