Predicting the value of professional sport clubs. A study of European soccer, 2005–2018

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-2

Yury Zelenkov, I. Solntsev

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article aims to build a general valuation model that can be applied by investors and current shareholders of professional sport clubs from different countries and leagues. The study is based on panel data on the valuation of soccer clubs published annually by Forbes. Authors analyze all value-drivers that were used previously, expanding the time horizon (number of observations) and incorporating various models including linear and non-linear mixed effect regressions. The best performance is obtained using a mixed-effect model with treebased fi xed part. The following determinants were found signifi cant for the fi xed effect: revenue and number of Google search requests. Analysis of actual deals in 2015–2020 confi rms the model’s predictive ability. It is also shown that since Forbes overestimates the market value of soccer clubs, the proposed model predicts an upper bound on the real value. In this regard, transactions with real value exceeding the estimates are of particular interest. A deeper analysis of such transactions allows to identify additional “non-soccer” factors affecting the deal. Therefore, the proposed model can serve as a tool for the rapid assessment of a soccer club based on open data.

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职业体育俱乐部价值预测。2005-2018年欧洲足球研究

本文旨在建立一个通用的估值模型，供不同国家和联赛的职业体育俱乐部的投资者和现有股东使用。这项研究基于《福布斯》(Forbes)每年发布的足球俱乐部估值面板数据。作者分析了以前使用的所有价值驱动因素，扩大了时间范围(观察次数)，并结合了各种模型，包括线性和非线性混合效应回归。采用基于树的固定部分混合效果模型获得最佳效果。以下决定因素被发现对固定效应有显著影响:收入和谷歌搜索请求的数量。对2015-2020年实际交易的分析证实了该模型的预测能力。研究还表明，由于福布斯高估了足球俱乐部的市场价值，所提出的模型预测了真实价值的上限。在这方面，我们特别感兴趣的是实际价值超过估计数的交易。对此类交易进行更深入的分析，可以发现影响交易的其他“非足球”因素。因此，所提出的模型可以作为基于公开数据的足球俱乐部快速评估工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Key Journal''s objectives: bring together economists of different schools of thought across the Russian Federation; strengthen ties between Academy institutes, educational establishments and economic research centers; improve the quality of Russian economic research and education; integrate economic science and education; speed up the integration of Russian economic science in the global mainstream of economic research. The Journal publishes both theoretical and empirical articles, devoted to all aspects of economic science, which are of interest for wide range of specialists. It welcomes high-quality interdisciplinary projects and economic studies employing methodologies from other sciences such as physics, psychology, political science, etc. Special attention is paid to analyses of processes occurring in the Russian economy. Decisions about publishing of articles are based on a double-blind review process. Exceptions are short notes in the section "Hot Topic", which is usually formed by special invitations and after considerations of the Editorial Board. The only criterion to publish is the quality of the work (original approach, significance and substance of findings, clear presentation style). No decision to publish or reject an article will be influenced by the author belonging to whatever public movement or putting forward ideas advocated by whatever political movement. The Journal comes out four times a year, each issue consisting of 12 to 15 press sheets. Now it is published only in Russian. The English translations of the Journal issues are posted on the Journal website as open access resources.