Russia’s agri-food exports until 2030: Projection from a partial equilibrium model

Abstract

Based on the applied economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model, the article estimates the volume of Russian exports of basic agri-food products until 2030. The results of simulation indicate a more dynamic increase in exports compared to the agricultural output. At the same time, grain and sunfl ower oil will remain the main products of Russian agrifood exports. Among the agri-food products presented in the study, sugar and milk exports will decline. The reduction in sugar exports is mainly due to a decrease in sugar production, while milk exports are infl uenced by growing domestic demand. In general, the supply of domestic products to Russian consumers is relatively stable, and the share of exports in agri-food products under certain conditions may increase from 19.6% in 2019 to 24.6% in 2030. Agri-food output is growing under the infl uence of technological progress, increasing consumer expenditures and export-stimulating measures by 5.6–6.5% compared to 2019, while measures to restrict the exports of grain and sunfl ower oil limit the growth of agri-food output to 0.6–0.8%.In this regard, the development of Russia’s agri-food sector is largely determined by the dynamics of real incomes of the population and the need to gradually abandon the application of export restriction measures.