The impact of the first demographic dividend on economic growth considering human capital

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-5

I. Kalabikhina, Z. G. Kazbekova

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Given the modest growth rates of the Russian economy over the past 10 years and population aging, a careful study of the demographic component of economic growth is of particular interest. This article provides a quantitative assessment of the first demographic dividend in Russia in 1997–2017. Based on Rosstat data for 74 Russian regions, the growth rates of real GRP per capita are modeled depending on the share of the working age population. Additionally, the model includes the possibility of assessing the dynamics of economic growth at the expense of human capital, since its high level can compensate for the negative influence of the demographic factor. According to our calculations, the demographic factor is significant and in the 2000s, it contributed to economic growth; since 2010, Russia has received a negative demographic dividend. Human capital weakly compensates for the negative trends of the demographic factor, which in the coming years will serve as a serious challenge to the growth of the Russian economy. The revealed positive, although still weak, influence of human capital indicates that the development of human capital in the regions of Russia can become a driver of their development.

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考虑人力资本的第一次人口红利对经济增长的影响

鉴于过去10年俄罗斯经济的适度增长率和人口老龄化，对经济增长的人口组成部分进行仔细研究是特别有意义的。本文对1997-2017年俄罗斯的第一次人口红利进行了定量评估。根据俄罗斯国家统计局74个地区的数据，实际人均国内生产总值的增长率根据工作年龄人口的比例进行建模。此外，该模型还包括以人力资本为代价评估经济增长动态的可能性，因为人力资本的高水平可以弥补人口因素的负面影响。根据我们的计算，人口因素是重要的，在2000年代，它对经济增长做出了贡献;自2010年以来，俄罗斯的人口红利为负。人力资本无力弥补人口因素的负面趋势，而人口因素在未来几年将对俄罗斯经济的增长构成严重挑战。虽然人力资本的积极影响仍然很弱，但这表明俄罗斯地区人力资本的发展可以成为其发展的驱动力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Zhurnal Novaya Ekonomicheskaya Assotsiatsiya-Journal of the New Economic Association ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Key Journal''s objectives: bring together economists of different schools of thought across the Russian Federation; strengthen ties between Academy institutes, educational establishments and economic research centers; improve the quality of Russian economic research and education; integrate economic science and education; speed up the integration of Russian economic science in the global mainstream of economic research. The Journal publishes both theoretical and empirical articles, devoted to all aspects of economic science, which are of interest for wide range of specialists. It welcomes high-quality interdisciplinary projects and economic studies employing methodologies from other sciences such as physics, psychology, political science, etc. Special attention is paid to analyses of processes occurring in the Russian economy. Decisions about publishing of articles are based on a double-blind review process. Exceptions are short notes in the section "Hot Topic", which is usually formed by special invitations and after considerations of the Editorial Board. The only criterion to publish is the quality of the work (original approach, significance and substance of findings, clear presentation style). No decision to publish or reject an article will be influenced by the author belonging to whatever public movement or putting forward ideas advocated by whatever political movement. The Journal comes out four times a year, each issue consisting of 12 to 15 press sheets. Now it is published only in Russian. The English translations of the Journal issues are posted on the Journal website as open access resources.