The Future of the Two Koreas: How to Build Peace on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

IntroductionThe future of the two Koreas has a great influence on the security landscape of the Northeast Asian region. It is clear that the two Korean regimes are facing both internal and external challenges and opportunities. Moreover, regional powers, such as the United States, China, Japan, and Russia, are concerned with changing inter- Korean relations especially with regard to the prospect for future security concerns of Northeast Asia in general, and the Korean Peninsula in particular. To explore the future of the Korean Peninsula, it is important to explore and understand the domestic political factors that could shape future policy direction within each Korean government.1This article argues that internal conditions in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime are the most important factor in determining future outcomes on the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, it suggests that the North's nuclear weapons program, its ongoing political transition process, and the policies of regional powers such as the U.S. are critical uncertainties that would have a great impact on the changing dynamics in the security environment of the Korean Peninsula. Based on a thorough exploration of these critical uncertainties, it concludes that the policy-makers of the South Korean government and the regional powers should take the possible collapse of North Korea scenario seriously, while making every effort to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula by creating a stable North Korea.Two Scenarios: Divorce Plus Reconciliation and the End of Absolute TyrannyRegarding the future of the two Koreas, there is one pessimistic view that only the collapse of the Kim family regime could lead to "genuine" denuclearization and subsequent peace-building on the Korean Peninsula.2 From this perspective, without the demise of the Kim regime, any efforts for peace and reconciliation in the security environment of the Korean Peninsula would be fruitless. On the other hand, scholars such as David Kang argue that economic cooperation between the North and the South plus the U.S. engagement policy toward the North could lead to political reconciliation and national reunification.3 Specifically, proponents of this view tend to think of the prospect for the North's economic reform and denuclearization as promising, based on their belief in the power of capitalist ideas flowing into North Korean society.It should be noted that the two scenarios-Divorce Plus Reconciliation and End of Absolute Tyranny4-are based on distinct perspectives: The former is based on an optimistic liberal view, while the latter is dependent upon a pessimistic realist view.Divorce Plus Reconciliation and Liberal OptimismSupported by an optimistic liberal prospect for the future of the two Korean states, Divorce Plus Reconciliation tries to provide a clear solution for the Korean question-one that involves multilateralism, economic cooperation, and political reconciliation. First, the Divorce Plus Reconciliation scenario is closely related to the discussion of "a permanent peace regime" on the Korean Peninsula. A peace treaty between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the U.S. would be a pre - condition for the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. The discourse of peace regime on the peninsula could be associated with the necessity of a multilateral institutional framework in the Northeast Asian region, and a multi - lateral peace and security mechanism can be based on the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis.5More importantly, to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, the "true" intentions of both Koreas are crucial, because, historically speaking, these two regimes on the peninsula have tended to use the discourse of peace regime or national unification to back their own regime interests.6 In a word, without genuine efforts by the two Koreas, such as denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the discussion of any peace regime framework remains an empty promise. …