Escenarios 2020 del Orden Mundial. Análisis desde la Prospectiva Estratégica

Abstract

Objective: the objective of this article is to show evidence of the prospective world scenarios to the year 2020. Methodology: a qualitative study of an analytical, nonexperimental, transectional and field type was defined. An instrument was designed and applied to a sample of six International Relations experts. This questionnaire presents five items for each variable analyzed. Results: the classification of the variables multipolarity, Asia Pacific leadership, unipolarity, threat to world security and neoprotectionism was achieved; these were cataloged according to the Swartch methodology in five scenarios of the global order to 2020. Conclusions: it is concluded that the same magnitude and speed of change resulting from globalization will allow the emergence of new powers, new governance challenges and a global arena in the global arena more widespread feeling of insecurity, which includes terrorism.