Assessing the fourth wave of the populist radical right: Jair Bolsonaro’s voters in comparative perspective

Abstract

The determinants of the vote for the populist radical right (PRR) have been thoroughly studied especially in Western and Eastern Europe. However, the PRR has become a global phenomenon. At this point, comparative studies are essential in order to advance in the understanding of the success of this party family. For this reason, in this paper, we analyze the individual factors that help to understand the support for Jair Bolsonaro in the last 2018 Presidential elections in Brazil at the light of the findings for the PRR in Western Europe. The aim is twofold. First, we contribute to the comparative literature on the determinants for the vote for the PRR in a non-European country. Second, we also assess, if any, the peculiarity of the vote for the PRR in Latin America and specifically in the Brazilian case. In order to carry on our analysis, we used the European Election Studies (EES) dataset for Western European parties and data from the Estudio Electoral Brasileño for Brazil (ESEB). The main results show that religion (evangelists), race (white), income (high), and, above all, negative views of the main opposition party (Partido dos Trabalhadores [PT] – Worker’s Party), i.e., antipetismo, are the main reasons to understand the vote for Bolsonaro in the 2018 Presidential elections.