ON SOME APPROACHES TO MODELING OF THE SEA TRADING PORTS THROUGHPUTS

Abstract

The article considers the existing approaches to modeling the capacity of commercial seaports. A review of research on seaport development models in order to summarize the experience of modeling complex processes and improve their use for forecasting and analysis.. Economic and mathematical modeling of ports is directly related to one or another of their conceptual modelsExamples of stochastic modeling studies, queuing models, scenario approach with combination of simulation modeling, use of Markov apparatus with demolition, dynamic optimization model based on methods of inventory management theory, namely the generalized Wagner-Whitein dynamic model are considered.Simulation modeling of sea trade ports in four main directions was considered: modeling of dynamic systems, discrete − event modeling, system dynamics, agent modeling.The aim of the study is to compare approaches to modeling the capacity of commercial seaports in the current state.A two-level multifactor dynamic model of linear programming is proposed to determine the capacity of ports and their specialization by type of cargo in a broad sense. The multifactorial modeling by the proposed model and the possibility of its use for the purposes of analysis limiting the capacity of ports, and to justify options for their deve-lopment.The method of organizing the delivery of goods through transshipment ports by different modes of transport is implemented in the process of optimal distribution of cargo between ports and modes of transport, which determines the specialization of ports by type of cargo in a broad sense. It was solving the problem determines the reserves of port capacity and limiting the resources of ports in which to invest for the development of growing cargo flows. The possibility of choosing options for the development of commercial seaports was realized in the model on the basis of maximum net income with the condition of repayment of loans in equal amounts and additional restrictions on investment, loans by year and the condition of inseparable net present value of individual investment projects in ports.Multicriteria optimization was considered in order to choose a solution that meets the interests of all participants in the transport process.Comparison of analytical, simulation and situational modeling of sea trade ports is performed.Keywords: analytical, econometric models, simulation modeling, situational modeling, sea trade ports