Ensemble modeling for the potential distribution of invasive weed Verbesina encelioides in South Africa from 2020 to 2090

IF 1.5 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Management of Biological Invasions Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.3391/mbi.2022.13.4.16

M. Moshobane, L. Esser

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Verbesina encelioides (Cav.) Benth. & Hook. Fil ex Gray (Asteraceae) is a perennial herb species belonging to the family Asteraceae. The plant is an aggressive obligate outbreeder weed that has invaded vast expanses of pastures, orchards, and forest areas in tropical and subtropical regions. The purpose of this study was to determine the suitability of current and potential future habitats for V. encelioides, an invasive weed in South Africa, using species distribution modelling techniques with the sdm package in R. The result of the ensemble model, based on current climatic conditions, highlights that Verbesina encelioides has a high probability of occurrence in all nine provinces of South Africa, across all the projected future scenarios, namely, 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Area values ranged from 810,612.09 km 2 in 2070, an increase of 4.23% over the current projection, to 663,356.44 km 2 in 2090, a decrease of 14.7% from the current projection. The outcome of these predictions showed that V. encelioides would benefit from the predicted climate change in South Africa. The findings could be used as a warning to implement early detection and a

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2020 - 2090年南非入侵杂草Verbesina enceloides潜在分布的集成模型

蕨草(Cav.)Benth。&钩。凤梨属菊科多年生草本植物。这种植物是一种具有侵略性的专性近亲繁殖杂草，已经入侵了热带和亚热带地区的大片牧场、果园和森林地区。基于当前气候条件的集合模型结果表明，在所有预测的未来情景(即2030、2050、2070和2090年)中，Verbesina encelioides在南非所有9个省都有很高的发生概率。从2070年的810,612.09 km2到2090年的663,356.44 km2，比当前预测增加了4.23%，减少了14.7%。这些预测的结果表明，V. enceloides将受益于预测的南非气候变化。这些发现可以作为一种预警，以实施早期发现和预防

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来源期刊

Management of Biological Invasions Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

6.70%

发文量

审稿时长

16 weeks

期刊介绍： Management of Biological Invasions, established in 2010 by Dr. Elias Dana, is an open access, peer-reviewed international journal focusing on applied research in biological invasions in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems from around the world. This journal is devoted to bridging the gap between scientific research and the use of science in decision-making, regulation and management in the area of invasive species introduction and biodiversity conservation. Managing biological invasions is a crisis science, with Management of Biological Invasions aiming to provide insights to the issues, to document new forms of detection, measurements and analysis, and to document tangible solutions to this problem. In addition to original research on applied issues, Management of Biological Invasions publishes technical reports on new management technologies of invasive species and also the proceedings of relevant international meetings. As a platform to encourage informed discussion on matters of national and international importance, we publish viewpoint papers that highlight emerging issues, showcase initiatives, and present opinions of leading researchers.