An Analysis and Forecast of the Growth of Economies Under Various Types of Ownership Systems in the Year 1997

Abstract

Although the proportion that the state-owned economic sector makes up in the national economy has been declining from year to year since the beginning of reform and opening up, it nonetheless remains in a dominant position today. Up to 1995, the largest contribution to the state's annual fiscal revenues has come from the state-owned economic sector, representing 65.8 percent and giving it the dominant position. The state-owned economy holds a position of absolute predominance in certain industrial sectors that are critical to the nation's economy as a whole and to the livelihood of the entire population. For example, the energy-resource industries, the postal-service industry, and the telecommunications industries are almost 100 percent in the hands of the state-owned economy; within the transportation industrial sector, the railroads and the long-distance maritime transportation industry are basically controlled by the state-owned economy; of the total amount of goods transported and handled by the transportation industrial sector as a whole, more than 97 percent is handled by state-owned economies. Although the nonâstate-owned economy has already come to manage a considerable portion of the value-added communications industry and the non-basic communications industry, state-owned economies remain the primary force in the basic communications service industrial sector. In recent years, banks operating under a shareholding system, credit cooperatives and credit unions, and nonâstate-owned insurance companies have experienced relatively rapid growth, and have come to occupy a considerable share of the market in these financial industries; and yet, in the financial industrial sector as a whole, the state-owned banks continue to control over 90 percent of the deposit and loan business in banking, and the People's Insurance Corporation [a state-owned economic entity] controls more than 90 percent of all insurance business in the nation. Furthermore, in the stocks and securities industry, the state-owned securities corporations remain dominant. In the manufacturing industrial sector, the state-owned economy continues to make up a very large proportion of all the major industries and trades. In 1995, 78.1 percent of the overall output value of mining industries, 67.5 percent of the output of raw industrial material, and 78.5 percent of the output in the electrical-power, gas, and water-supply industries were all under the state-owned economy. In the processing industries sector, the share of the state-owned economy is relatively less, but even here, if we were to define enterprises in which state ownership controls more than 50 percent of the stocks/shares as part of the state-owned economy, there would be a substantial increase in the state-owned economic sector's share of the output in the processing industries as well.