Hydrological frequency analysis of large-ensemble climate simulation data using control density as a statistical control

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
Daiwei Cheng, K. Shimizu, Tomohito J. Yamada
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Uncertainty in hydrological statistics estimated with finite observations, such as design rainfall, can be quanti‐ fied as a confidence interval using statistical theory. Ensemble climate data also enables derivation of a confi‐ dence interval. Recently, the database for policy decision making for future climate change (d4PDF) was developed in Japan, which contains dozens of simulated extreme rain‐ fall events for the past and 60 years into the future, allow‐ ing the uncertainty of design rainfall to be quantified as a confidence interval. This study applies an order statistics distribution to evaluate uncertainty in the order statistics of extreme rainfall from the perspective of mathematical theory, while a confidence interval is used for uncertainty evaluation in the probability distribution itself. An advan‐ tage of the introduction of an order statistics distribution is that it can be used to quantify the goodness-of-fit between observation and ensemble climate data under the condition that the extreme value distribution estimated from observa‐ tions is a true distribution. The order statistics distribution is called the control density distribution, which is derived from characteristics that order statistics from standard uni‐ form distribution follows beta distribution. The overlap ratio of the control density distribution and frequency dis‐ tributions derived from ensemble climate data is utilized for evaluation of the degree of goodness-of-fit for both data.
利用控制密度作为统计控制的大集合气候模拟数据水文频率分析
用有限观测估计的水文统计中的不确定性,如设计降雨量,可以使用统计理论量化为置信区间。综合气候数据也可以推导出置信区间。最近,日本开发了未来气候变化政策决策数据库(d4PDF),其中包含数十个过去和未来60年的模拟极端降雨事件,允许将设计降雨量的不确定性量化为置信区间。本研究从数学理论的角度,采用有序统计分布来评价极端降雨有序统计中的不确定性,而概率分布本身则采用置信区间来评价不确定性。引入有序统计分布的一个优点是,在观测估计的极值分布是真实分布的情况下,它可以用来量化观测和集合气候数据之间的拟合优度。有序统计量分布称为控制密度分布,它来源于标准均匀分布的有序统计量服从beta分布的特征。利用集合气候数据得出的控制密度分布和频率分布的重叠比率来评价这两个数据的拟合优度。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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