{"title":"Hydrological frequency analysis of large-ensemble climate simulation data using control density as a statistical control","authors":"Daiwei Cheng, K. Shimizu, Tomohito J. Yamada","doi":"10.3178/hrl.15.84","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Uncertainty in hydrological statistics estimated with finite observations, such as design rainfall, can be quanti‐ fied as a confidence interval using statistical theory. Ensemble climate data also enables derivation of a confi‐ dence interval. Recently, the database for policy decision making for future climate change (d4PDF) was developed in Japan, which contains dozens of simulated extreme rain‐ fall events for the past and 60 years into the future, allow‐ ing the uncertainty of design rainfall to be quantified as a confidence interval. This study applies an order statistics distribution to evaluate uncertainty in the order statistics of extreme rainfall from the perspective of mathematical theory, while a confidence interval is used for uncertainty evaluation in the probability distribution itself. An advan‐ tage of the introduction of an order statistics distribution is that it can be used to quantify the goodness-of-fit between observation and ensemble climate data under the condition that the extreme value distribution estimated from observa‐ tions is a true distribution. The order statistics distribution is called the control density distribution, which is derived from characteristics that order statistics from standard uni‐ form distribution follows beta distribution. The overlap ratio of the control density distribution and frequency dis‐ tributions derived from ensemble climate data is utilized for evaluation of the degree of goodness-of-fit for both data.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrological Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.15.84","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
Uncertainty in hydrological statistics estimated with finite observations, such as design rainfall, can be quanti‐ fied as a confidence interval using statistical theory. Ensemble climate data also enables derivation of a confi‐ dence interval. Recently, the database for policy decision making for future climate change (d4PDF) was developed in Japan, which contains dozens of simulated extreme rain‐ fall events for the past and 60 years into the future, allow‐ ing the uncertainty of design rainfall to be quantified as a confidence interval. This study applies an order statistics distribution to evaluate uncertainty in the order statistics of extreme rainfall from the perspective of mathematical theory, while a confidence interval is used for uncertainty evaluation in the probability distribution itself. An advan‐ tage of the introduction of an order statistics distribution is that it can be used to quantify the goodness-of-fit between observation and ensemble climate data under the condition that the extreme value distribution estimated from observa‐ tions is a true distribution. The order statistics distribution is called the control density distribution, which is derived from characteristics that order statistics from standard uni‐ form distribution follows beta distribution. The overlap ratio of the control density distribution and frequency dis‐ tributions derived from ensemble climate data is utilized for evaluation of the degree of goodness-of-fit for both data.
期刊介绍:
Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.