Correction of the surface water formation parameter used in a malaria transmission model and future malaria projections for Africa

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
Inna Syafarina, Arnida Lailatul Latifah, Yosuke Miura, T. Nitta, K. Yoshimura
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The surface water formation parameter (Kw) currently used in malaria transmission models can dramatically affect larval development calculations. However, the parameter is often unrealistic due to the unavailability of observational datasets. This research presents an adjusted Kw by reference to an entomological inoculation rate (EIR) over the period 1983–2006, tuning the parameter by minimizing root mean square deviation of the water fraction from model calcula‐ tions and satellite observations from 2014–2018. A scaling factor, topography factor, and inverse distance weighting were used to reduce the gap between macroand microscales and to derive the appropriate spatial distribu‐ tion of Kw for a projection period from 2020–2100. The average EIR over the projection period under Representa‐ tive Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 7.0, and 8.5 in West Africa decreased by –29%, –43% and –35%, respectively, from the historical period. By contrast, for central southern Africa, the respective values increased by 3%, 6%, and 29% from the historical period. The reduced EIRs under RCPs 7.0 and 8.5 in West Africa were mostly affected by temperature, while monthly mean precipitation triggered a decrease in EIRs under RCP 2.6. By contrast, consecutive wet days have the most influential role in increasing the EIR in central southern Africa under all RCP scenarios. This research will help policy-makers eradicate vulnerable malaria areas and improve related policy design.
用于疟疾传播模型和非洲未来疟疾预测的地表水形成参数的校正
目前用于疟疾传播模型的地表水形成参数(Kw)可以极大地影响幼虫发育的计算。然而,由于无法获得观测数据集,该参数往往是不现实的。本研究参照1983-2006年期间的昆虫接种率(EIR),通过最小化模型计算和2014-2018年卫星观测的水分数的均方根偏差,对参数进行了调整。利用比例因子、地形因子和逆距离加权来缩小宏观尺度和微观尺度之间的差距,并得出2020-2100年预测期间Kw的适当空间分布。在代表性浓度路径(RCP)情景2.6、7.0和8.5的预测期内,西非的平均EIR分别比历史时期下降了-29%、-43%和-35%。相比之下,对于非洲中部南部,各自的价值较历史时期分别增长了3%、6%和29%。在RCP 7.0和8.5条件下,西非地区的eir减少主要受温度的影响,而在RCP 2.6条件下,月平均降水引发了eir的减少。相比之下,在所有RCP情景下,连续潮湿天数对增加中非南部地区的EIR影响最大。这项研究将有助于决策者根除疟疾易发地区,改进相关政策设计。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
18.20%
发文量
9
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.
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