Inna Syafarina, Arnida Lailatul Latifah, Yosuke Miura, T. Nitta, K. Yoshimura
{"title":"Correction of the surface water formation parameter used in a malaria transmission model and future malaria projections for Africa","authors":"Inna Syafarina, Arnida Lailatul Latifah, Yosuke Miura, T. Nitta, K. Yoshimura","doi":"10.3178/hrl.15.98","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The surface water formation parameter (Kw) currently used in malaria transmission models can dramatically affect larval development calculations. However, the parameter is often unrealistic due to the unavailability of observational datasets. This research presents an adjusted Kw by reference to an entomological inoculation rate (EIR) over the period 1983–2006, tuning the parameter by minimizing root mean square deviation of the water fraction from model calcula‐ tions and satellite observations from 2014–2018. A scaling factor, topography factor, and inverse distance weighting were used to reduce the gap between macroand microscales and to derive the appropriate spatial distribu‐ tion of Kw for a projection period from 2020–2100. The average EIR over the projection period under Representa‐ tive Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 7.0, and 8.5 in West Africa decreased by –29%, –43% and –35%, respectively, from the historical period. By contrast, for central southern Africa, the respective values increased by 3%, 6%, and 29% from the historical period. The reduced EIRs under RCPs 7.0 and 8.5 in West Africa were mostly affected by temperature, while monthly mean precipitation triggered a decrease in EIRs under RCP 2.6. By contrast, consecutive wet days have the most influential role in increasing the EIR in central southern Africa under all RCP scenarios. This research will help policy-makers eradicate vulnerable malaria areas and improve related policy design.","PeriodicalId":13111,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrological Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.15.98","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The surface water formation parameter (Kw) currently used in malaria transmission models can dramatically affect larval development calculations. However, the parameter is often unrealistic due to the unavailability of observational datasets. This research presents an adjusted Kw by reference to an entomological inoculation rate (EIR) over the period 1983–2006, tuning the parameter by minimizing root mean square deviation of the water fraction from model calcula‐ tions and satellite observations from 2014–2018. A scaling factor, topography factor, and inverse distance weighting were used to reduce the gap between macroand microscales and to derive the appropriate spatial distribu‐ tion of Kw for a projection period from 2020–2100. The average EIR over the projection period under Representa‐ tive Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 7.0, and 8.5 in West Africa decreased by –29%, –43% and –35%, respectively, from the historical period. By contrast, for central southern Africa, the respective values increased by 3%, 6%, and 29% from the historical period. The reduced EIRs under RCPs 7.0 and 8.5 in West Africa were mostly affected by temperature, while monthly mean precipitation triggered a decrease in EIRs under RCP 2.6. By contrast, consecutive wet days have the most influential role in increasing the EIR in central southern Africa under all RCP scenarios. This research will help policy-makers eradicate vulnerable malaria areas and improve related policy design.
期刊介绍:
Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.