Future precipitation changes during summer in East Asia and model dependence in high-resolution MRI-AGCM experiments

IF 0.8 Q4 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.11.168

T. Ose

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引用次数: 6

Abstract

Global warming experiments using high-resolution climate models are important for studying the impact of global warming on human society from region to region. Three different cumulus schemes (YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch and AS: Arakawa-Schubert) in the highresolution Meteorological Research Institute AGCM have simulated slightly different future summer mean precipitation changes in East Asia, which are not negligible in the context of regional climate change. Specifically, 25-year mean June-July-August (JJA) average precipitation clearly decreases over eastern Japan, and tends to increase over northern Japan in YS. However, in KF and AS, decreases in precipitation are not significant over Japan, and an increase is clear from central China through southwestern Japan. Addtionally, the increase is extended over the Pacific side of Japan in KF. The above dependence of future changes in precipitation in East Asia on the scheme used is interpreted by comparing future changes in water and heat balances in the atmosphere. Among possible global warming effects, scheme dependence is attributed to different changes in mean vertical velocity associated with southward shift of the westerly jet over the northern Pacific and weakened Asian monsoon circulations over Eurasia.

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东亚夏季未来降水变化及高分辨率MRI-AGCM实验模式依赖性

利用高分辨率气候模式进行全球变暖实验对于研究全球变暖对不同区域人类社会的影响具有重要意义。AGCM高分辨率气象研究所的三个不同的积云方案(YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch和AS: Arakawa-Schubert)模拟了东亚未来夏季平均降水变化的细微差异，这些变化在区域气候变化的背景下不可忽略。其中，日本东部地区6 - 7 - 8月25年平均降水量明显减少，日本北部地区有增加的趋势。然而，在KF和AS，降水减少在日本并不明显，从中国中部到日本西南部明显增加。此外，KF的增长延伸到日本太平洋一侧。上述东亚未来降水变化对所使用方案的依赖性可以通过比较未来大气中水和热平衡的变化来解释。在可能的全球变暖效应中，方案依赖性归因于与北太平洋上空西风急流南移和欧亚大陆上空减弱的亚洲季风环流有关的平均垂直速度的不同变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrological Research Letters WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.