Statistical evaluation of future soil moisture changes in East Asia projected in a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.11.37

T. Nakaegawa

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

: Simple explanations for changes in surface soil moisture in the late 21st century under global warming were explored, based on statistical significance and without consideration of complicated mechanisms. The results of a multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis showed significant increases in surface soil moisture in one northwestern inland area, and significant decreases were projected in two inland areas in southern and northern China. Among three water flux vari ables, precipitation ( P ), evaporation ( E ), and total runoff ( R ), significant changes in E explained only 10% of the total area showing significant changes in surface soil moisture. Among three combinations of two water flux variables, ( P – E ), ( E + R ), and ( P – R ), significant changes in ( P – E ) were dominant in coastal northeastern China, but this area did not overlap with areas with significant changes in surface soil moisture. Individual analyses revealed that significant increases in E , ( P – R ), and ( E + R ) explained 26%, 13%, and 9%, respec -tively, of the total area showing a significant decrease in the MME mean surface soil moisture. This result indicates that reliance on the MME mean may hinder understanding of the geophysical mechanism linking water flux variables with surface soil moisture.

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CMIP5多模式综合预估东亚未来土壤湿度变化的统计评价

对21世纪后期全球变暖背景下地表土壤湿度变化的简单解释进行了探索，基于统计显著性，不考虑复杂的机制。多模式综合(MME)分析结果显示，西北一个内陆地区表层土壤水分显著增加，华南和华北两个内陆地区表层土壤水分显著减少。在降水(P)、蒸发(E)和总径流量(R)三个水通量变量中，E的显著变化仅解释了地表土壤湿度显著变化的总面积的10%。在(P - E)、(E + R)和(P - R) 3个水通量变量组合中，东北沿海地区以(P - E)变化显著为主，但与表层土壤湿度变化显著的地区不重叠。个体分析表明，E、(P - R)和(E + R)的显著增加分别占MME平均地表土壤水分显著减少总面积的26%、13%和9%。这一结果表明，依赖MME平均值可能会阻碍对水通量变量与地表土壤湿度之间联系的地球物理机制的理解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrological Research Letters WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.