Estimating probability of extreme rainfall over Japan using Extended Regional Frequency Analysis

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.11.19

M. Sugi, Y. Imada, T. Nakaegawa, K. Kamiguchi

引用次数: 8

Abstract

: A method of frequency analysis, Extended Regional Frequency Analysis (ERFA), is proposed for reliable estimates of extreme daily rainfall probabilities for a long return period from relatively short daily rainfall records. The method uses combined data in a wide meteorologically homogeneous region (e.g., all Japan) to ensure a large number (order of 10,000) of data to minimize the effects of statistical sampling error in the frequency analysis. We applied the ERFA to daily rainfall data observed over Japan and to a high reso-lution atmospheric model simulation data over the meteorologically homogeneous land region of Japan. We found very good agreement between the empirical probability distribution and theoretical distribution estimated by ERFA, sug-gesting that the method is promising. However, we have noted some problems regarding ERFA: selection of the distribution, selection of the region, and model bias. These problems, along with possible solutions, are discussed.

查看原文本刊更多论文

利用扩展区域频率分析估算日本极端降雨的概率

提出了一种频率分析方法，即扩展区域频率分析(ERFA)，用于从相对较短的日降雨记录中可靠地估计长回归期的极端日降雨概率。该方法使用广泛的气象同质区域(如全日本)的组合数据，以确保大量(10,000数量级)的数据，以尽量减少频率分析中统计抽样误差的影响。我们将ERFA应用于日本的日降水观测数据和日本气象均质陆区的高分辨率大气模式模拟数据。我们发现经验概率分布与ERFA估计的理论概率分布非常吻合，表明该方法是有前途的。然而，我们注意到一些关于ERFA的问题:分布的选择、区域的选择和模型偏差。讨论了这些问题以及可能的解决方案。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Hydrological Research Letters WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.