Mean Sea Level Variability of the Oman Sea and its response to monsoon and the North Atlantic Oscillation index from Tide Gauge measurements

Abstract

Sea level analysis along the Northern Coast of the Oman Sea has been investigated on the basis of tide gauge measurements. Meteorological parameters, along with monsoon and NAO indices are used to study the response of sea level to local and global forcing.  The relation between sea level and forces are examined. The low correlation coefficient (-0.35) between sea level and atmospheric pressure at Chabahar indicates that the response to atmospheric pressure is not an inverse barometric. The nature of local inverse barometric effects are examined through a series of statistical models. Analysis between sea level and atmospheric pressure reveals a significant coherence, which means that the Oman Sea mean level responds to atmospheric pressure as an inverse barometer. One can notice that the   between atmospheric pressure and mean sea level is due to alongshore wind stress forcing and is consistent with that expected from Ekman dynamics. The four EOF modes capture 87.16% for the x-component and 94.70% for the y-component of the total variance and are statistically significant.  Linear regression and ARIMA model forecasts were fitted to sea level and compared to the actual data. Even though both models gave similar results, the ARIMA model performed considerably better