Bolreal ecotone of the East-European Plain: Empirical statistical modeling

Abstract

The solution of multipurpose tasks of ecological forecasting may depend to a great extent on the results of system analysis of nature-territorial structures, which are most sensitive to external effects including anthropogenic. The scientific search in this direction focuses more and more attention on the natural boundaries – both individual and complex, where the most significant natural or anthropogenic shifts in the structure and function of geo(eco)systems are observed. Considering one or another natural boundary as a vector (connection, cascade, para-dynamical, etc.) landscape system with a clearly defined spatial polarization of its different properties, we obtain a "fast-flowing" model of state response and resistance of geo(eco)systems to the action of certain ecological factors. The study of the structural-functional organization of natural ecosystems at the geographical ecotones is also of scientific and methodical importance, which is common with geo-ecology and, in addition, most important for regional and local landscape-ecological forecasts. Geographical ecotones are the most sensitive (and, in this sense, the least stable) fragments of natural-territorial mosaic. The boreal biogeographic ecotone of the Volga River basin is described as an example for considering the theoretical and scientific-methodical problems of geographical zonality: the fundamental ecological-geographical conception at the present-day stage of biosphere evolution associated with the global anthropogenic impact on the climate. A conception on regional bioclimatic system, characterizing climate-genic exo-dynamic characteristics of soil-vegetation "core" of natural com-plexes is presented. It can survey as a scientific-methodological base of paleogeographical reconstructions and landscape-ecological forecasts. Climate nishes of the phytocoenological and soil’ units are the elements of bioclimatic system and the forms of display of soil-vegatation cover’ hydrothermal stability during the changing climate. Zonal boundaries are considered as modern spatial analogs of the future landscape changes in time. The work dwells on the basic "trigger" mechanisms of zonal boundary formation at the interaction of background climatic signals and their refraction by local (mainly lithe-genic) factors.