Assessing the subnational-level yield forecast skills of the 2019/20 season NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service for Southern Hemisphere countries

Abstract

An unstable supply of commodity crops and associated increases in food prices are recent and growing concerns due to increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasing frequencies of some extreme climate events. Agricultural monitoring and forecasting can support national food agencies, international organizations and commercial entities in better responding to anticipated production shocks induced by seasonal climate extremes. The global seasonal crop forecasting service jointly developed in 2018 by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization ( NARO ) , Japan and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center ( APCC ) , South Korea is an emerging and unique example of agricultural forecasting tailored to major commodity crops ( maize, rice, wheat and soybean ) . The present study evaluates the skills of the NARO-APCC yield forecasts in five countries located in the Southern Hemisphere ( the 2019/20 season in Australia and Uruguay and the 2018/19 season in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay ) , following the previous assessment for the 2019 season in Northern Hemisphere countries. The results reveal that the NARO-APCC forecasts can capture the major characteristics of reported state yields even six months before harvesting, with variations by crop ( the correlation coefficients calculated between the forecasted and reported state yields within a country in a season of interest were frequently over 0.8 for maize, rice and wheat and approximately 0.3 for soybean ) . In three-fifths of the 122 crop-state combinations assessed here, the NARO-APCC forecasts showed smaller forecast errors than those of the simple forecasts derived solely based on the reported yields. The findings of this study emphasize the novelty of long-range crop forecasting, such as the NARO-APCC forecasts that provide yield forecast information available even just after planting. Together, the NARO-APCC forecasts and existing regional crop forecasts contribute to making objective yield forecast information more seamlessly available throughout the season from planting to harvesting than what is currently available.