Does transitioning away from GHG emitting companies hinder the capacity of banks to create shareholder value?

Abstract

This article investigates the capacity of banks to create shareholder value amidst regulators and stakeholders’ growing demands for reductions in financing to greenhouse gas emitting companies. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the shareholder value creation capacity of banks amidst transition risks resulting from reductions in loans from high greenhouse gas emitters. The study compares reductions in balance sheet corporate loans to returns on equity from income statements. The comparison is done for periods during which interest rates move downwards as a way of stress testing banks’ capabilities to generate shareholder value. A risk-return analysis is conducted to determine the rate of change in risk compared to shareholder value. A hypothesis-testing focus is used to test a value-creation proposition concerning the rate of change in corporate loans and return on equity. The results of the study strongly suggest that banks can create shareholder value when faced with loan reductions to high greenhouse gas emitting companies, even within constrained repricing conditions such as negative interest rate movements. Of the cases analyzed 88% have a similar outcome of value creation, which is supported by a rejection of the null hypothesis at p-value ≤ 0.05, justifying statistical significance. Furthermore, 53% of the changes in return on equity is explained by the changes in loans to greenhouse gas emitting companies. The study concludes that banks could still create shareholder value if they reduce funding towards high greenhouse gas emitting companies, provided they devise prudent strategic portfolio tilts in assets.