Monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from bounds and Bayer-Hanck cointegration techniques

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economic Annals Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.2298/eka2336081i

Kingsley Imandojemu, Bosede Ngozi Adeleye, Babatunde Aina

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This paper contributes to the monetary policy-economic growth debate by investigating whether monetary policy stimulates economic growth in Nigeria. Using time series data from 1970 to 2018 and deploying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, bounds and the Bayer- Hanck (2013) cointegration tests, evidence from the main and robustness checks show that (1) a significant long-run association exists, and (2) a percentage increase in the monetary policy rate results in 0.055 percentage decline in economic growth, on average, ceteris paribus. In other words, these findings confirm that a statistically significant inverse relation exists between monetary policy and economic growth in Nigeria. Trade openness also exerts asymmetric contemporaneous (0.094) and lag (-0.059) impacts on economic growth at the 1% and 5% significance levels, respectively. Similarly, the inflation rate contemporaneously reduces economic growth (-0.002) at the 1% significance level while its lag impacts are asymmetric and statistically significant at the 10% and 5% levels, respectively. Policy recommendations are discussed.

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尼日利亚货币政策与经济增长:来自边界和bayer - hank协整技术的证据

本文通过调查货币政策是否刺激了尼日利亚的经济增长，为货币政策-经济增长之争做出了贡献。使用1970年至2018年的时间序列数据，并采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型、边界和Bayer- hank(2013)协整检验，来自主检验和稳健性检验的证据表明:(1)存在显著的长期关联，(2)在其他条件相同的情况下，货币政策利率每增加一个百分点，经济增长率平均下降0.055%。换句话说，这些发现证实了尼日利亚的货币政策和经济增长之间存在统计学上显著的反比关系。贸易开放对经济增长也分别在1%和5%的显著水平上产生非对称同期影响(0.094)和滞后影响(-0.059)。同样，通货膨胀率在1%显著水平上同时降低经济增长(-0.002)，而其滞后影响分别在10%和5%水平上不对称且具有统计显著性。讨论了政策建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Annals Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.