Investigation of the sunspots and GDP nexus: The case of Balkan countries

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economic Annals Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.2298/eka2337069z

Berislav Žmuk, Hrvoje Jošić

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The phenomenon known as sunspots refers to regions of the Sun?s photosphere that are darker than their surroundings because their surface temperature is lower. The sunspot growth theory, however debatable, is one of the first explanations for economic development that explains how variations in the Sun?s activity affect the business cycle. Jevons developed the sunspot hypothesis in 1875. To reevaluate this notion, this research uses correlation and regression analysis to explore the relationship between sunspots and GDP in the context of 11 Balkan nations over the years 1960-2021. By extending the sample of nations in panel regression models to include all nations on Earth, further robustness testing is accomplished. It was found that there exist significantly negative medium strength correlations between sunspots and gross domestic product values of 8 out of 11 Balkan countries. Similar findings were obtained using simple linear regression analysis. The results of the cross-country panel regression models further highlight the negative impact of solar activity on economic activity, which is also associated with nations that are located at higher latitudes.

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太阳黑子与GDP关系的调查:以巴尔干国家为例

被称为太阳黑子的现象指的是太阳的某些区域。因为它们的表面温度较低，所以它们比周围的环境更暗。尽管存在争议，但太阳黑子增长理论是最早解释经济发展的理论之一，它解释了太阳的变化如何?经济活动影响商业周期。杰文斯在1875年提出了太阳黑子假说。为了重新评估这一概念，本研究使用相关和回归分析来探索1960-2021年11个巴尔干国家的太阳黑子与GDP之间的关系。通过将面板回归模型中的国家样本扩展到包括地球上的所有国家，进一步完成了稳健性检验。结果发现，在11个巴尔干国家中，有8个国家的太阳黑子与国内生产总值之间存在显著的中等负相关关系。用简单的线性回归分析得到了类似的结果。跨国面板回归模型的结果进一步强调了太阳活动对经济活动的负面影响，这也与位于高纬度地区的国家有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Annals Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18 weeks

期刊介绍： Economic Annals is an academic journal that has been published on a quarterly basis since 1955, initially under its Serbian name of Ekonomski anali (EconLit). Since 2006 it has been published exclusively in English. It is published by the Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Serbia. The journal publishes research in all areas of economics. The Editorial Board welcomes contributions that explore economic issues in a comparative perspective with a focus on transition and emerging economies in Europe and around the world. The journal encourages the submission of original unpublished works, not under consideration by other journals or publications. All submitted papers undergo a double blind refereeing process. Authors are expected to follow standard publication procedures [Instructions to Authors], to recognise the values of the international academic community and to respect the journal’s Policy.