Ambiguous high scores: The All-Russian Olympiad in economics during the COVID-19 pandemic

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-89-108

Timur Magzhanov, Anna Sagradyan

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper evaluates the change in the contribution of factors to the probability of students’ success at the All‐Russian Olympiad in economics during the COVID‐19 pandemic using classical econometric models and binary quantile regression (BQR). No works were found in the Russian literature where BQR would be applied. However, in our opinion, it has great potential both for studying the effects’ heterogeneity and for solving probability prediction problems. Empirical results show that the contribution of school rating to success at the municipal stage decreased in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. High score at the municipal stage (winner status) became a weaker predictor of success at the regional stage in the 2020/21 season compared to the 2019/20 season. The reason for this change may lie in a decrease in the tasks’ complexity (due to a change in their structure), a higher opportunity for cheating (due to weak and non‐mandatory proctoring) or both.

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模棱两可的高分:2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的全俄罗斯经济学奥林匹克竞赛

本文利用经典计量经济学模型和二元分位数回归(BQR)，评估了COVID - 19大流行期间，各因素对学生在全俄奥林匹克经济学竞赛中成功概率的贡献变化。在俄罗斯文学中没有发现BQR将被应用的作品。然而，我们认为，它在研究效应的异质性和解决概率预测问题方面都有很大的潜力。实证结果表明，与2019/20赛季相比，2020/21赛季学校评级对市政阶段成功的贡献有所下降。与2019/20赛季相比，2020/21赛季市政阶段的高分(获胜者地位)在区域阶段的预测能力较弱。这种变化的原因可能是任务复杂性的降低(由于其结构的改变)，作弊的机会更高(由于弱和非强制性监考)，或者两者兼而有之。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.