Revenues and expenditures of Russian regional budgets: Granger causality analysis

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-5-33

Natalia A. Krasnopeeva

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigated the causality between expenditures and revenues of consolidated regional budgets of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation in the period from 2002 to 2019. Based on panel data, the Granger‐causality test was implemented with the calculation of critical values using the bootstrapping procedure for each individual region. The analysis is based on indicating the direction of the relationship between expenditures and revenues of regional budgets in the context of four hypotheses: “tax-spend”, “spend-tax”, “fiscal synchronization” and “fiscal disunity”. It has been shown that 25% of Russian regions fulfill the “tax-spend” hypothesis, 7% — “spend-tax” hypothesis, 47% — “fiscal synchronization” hypothesis, and 20% —“fiscal disunity” hypothesis. Regions in the “fiscal disunity” group are characterized by a high level of public debt, which for one‐third of them may create risks for their fiscal sustainability, and subsequently risks for the federal budget.

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俄罗斯地区预算收入与支出:格兰杰因果分析

本文研究了2002年至2019年期间俄罗斯联邦83个主体的综合区域预算支出与收入之间的因果关系。在面板数据的基础上，格兰杰因果关系检验通过对每个单独区域使用bootstrapping程序计算临界值来实施。分析的基础是在“税收-支出”、“支出-税收”、“财政同步”和“财政不统一”四个假设的背景下，指出区域预算支出与收入关系的走向。研究表明，25%的俄罗斯地区符合“税收-支出”假设，7%的地区符合“支出-税收”假设，47%的地区符合“财政同步”假设，20%的地区符合“财政不统一”假设。“财政不统一”地区的特点是公共债务水平高，其中三分之一的地区可能会给其财政可持续性带来风险，进而给联邦预算带来风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.