Sino-DPRK Relations and Chinese Perception toward North Korea’s Nuclear Issue: Meta-Analysis on Chinese Literature since 2012

Abstract

This paper examined the perceptions of Chinese scholars on Sino-DPRK relations and North Korea’s nuclear issue through meta-analysis of arguments of 102 articles published from January 2012 to June 2020. As a result of a comprehensive investigation, this paper found six main tendencies on Chinese academic discourse. First, although Sino-DPRK relations became strained at times, most articles viewed it as a friendly alliance and a special relationship. Some also argue that it should be transformed into normal diplomatic relations between sovereign states. Second, while acknowledging North Korea’s role as a strategic buffer, Chinese scholars tend to believe that Pyongyang’s nuclear program not only threatens China’s national security and interests but also allows the United States to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance and implement strategic deterrence against Beijing. Third, in many scholars’ predictions, the North’s nuclear weapons are likely to cause nuclear proliferation and an arms race in East Asia. Fourth, scholars claim that the North’s nuclear issue stem not only from the Cold War but also from the post-Cold War architecture on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, some of them support the North’s nuclear development, emphasizing a Korean unification led by Pyongyang, a strategic balance between the two Koreas, and lessons from the Indian and Iraqi cases. Fifth, most papers find the root cause of Pyongyang’s nuclear development as being from U.S. military threats, yet the authors think situational changes made the North’s nuclear policy more entrenched. Sixth, the authors stressed Sino-U.S. cooperation is necessary to resolve nuclear issue, criticizing the lack of Washington’s sincerity. They expect Beijing to play an active role in this problem based on its special relationship with Pyongyang despite some limitations.