Modeling the spatio-temporal distribution of the Anopheles mosquito based on life history and surface water conditions

Abstract

To describe the temporal and geographic distribution of the malaria vector mosquito (Anopheles) at a fine resolution, we modeled the relationship between mosquito life history and climate conditions, focusing on temperature- dependent development of the mosquito. Because Anopheles has aquatic immature life stages, the model was designed to incorporate information on surface moisture conditions suitable for the mosquito. Development was estimated using either air or water temperature, depending on the developmental stage. The model was able to predict seasonal patterns of occurrence of Anopheles at representative sites with reasonable accuracy. Individual emergence of mosquitoes was limited by low water temperatures and/or low moisture conditions at the soil surface in cold or dry seasons. This model was then applied to obtain the geographic distribution of Anopheles occurrence in Monsoon Asia. Spatio-temporal emergence of the Anopheles mosquito was successfully represented using the model and simple climate data. This model can be used to predict the distribution of the mosquito for malaria risk assessments under future scenarios involving climate change and the effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events.