Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q3 MANAGEMENT

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI:10.1093/imaman/dpaa029

Uhrín Matej;Šourek Gustav;Hubáček Ondřej;Železný Filip

引用次数: 7

Abstract

We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies and review their common modifications used in practice. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the additional risk stemming from the unrealistic mathematical assumptions of the formal strategies. We test the resulting methods using a unified evaluation protocol for three sports: horse racing, basketball and soccer. The results show the practical necessity of the additional risk-control methods and demonstrate their individual benefits. Particularly, an adaptive variant of the popular ‘fractional Kelly’ method is a very suitable choice across a wide range of settings.

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实践中的最佳体育博彩策略：实验综述

基于现代投资组合理论和Kelly准则，我们研究了解决体育博彩投资问题的最流行方法。我们定义了问题设置、正式投资策略，并回顾了它们在实践中的常见修改。经过审查的修改的根本目的是减轻形式战略不切实际的数学假设所带来的额外风险。我们使用三个项目的统一评估协议来测试结果方法：赛马、篮球和足球。结果表明了额外的风险控制方法的实际必要性，并证明了它们的个体效益。特别是，流行的“分数凯利”方法的自适应变体在各种设置中都是非常合适的选择。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

17.60%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of this quarterly journal is to publish mathematical research of the highest quality, impact and relevance that can be directly utilised or have demonstrable potential to be employed by managers in profit, not-for-profit, third party and governmental/public organisations to improve their practices. Thus the research must be quantitative and of the highest quality if it is to be published in the journal. Furthermore, the outcome of the research must be ultimately useful for managers. The journal also publishes novel meta-analyses of the literature, reviews of the "state-of-the art" in a manner that provides new insight, and genuine applications of mathematics to real-world problems in the form of case studies. The journal welcomes papers dealing with topics in Operational Research and Management Science, Operations Management, Decision Sciences, Transportation Science, Marketing Science, Analytics, and Financial and Risk Modelling.