Modeling of hourly river water temperatures using artificial neural networks

Abstract

Water temperature is an important component for water quality and biotic conditions in rivers. A good knowledge of river thermal regime is critical for the management of aquatic resources and environmental impact studies. The objective of the present study was to develop a water temperature model as a function of air temperatures, water temperatures and water level data using artificial neural network (ANN) techniques for two thermally different streams. This model was applied on an hourly basis. The results showed that ANN models are an effective modeling tool with overall root-mean-square-error of 0.94 and 1.23 °C, coefficient of determination ( R 2) of 0.967 and 0.962 and bias of −0.13 and 0.02 °C, for Catamaran Brook and the Little Southwest Miramichi River, respectively. The ANN model performed best in summer and autumn and showed a poorer performance in spring. Results of the present study showed similar or better results to those of deterministic and stochastic models. The present study shows that the predicted hourly water temperatures can also be used to estimate the mean and maximum daily water temperatures. The many advantages of ANN models are their simplicity, low data requirements, their capability of modeling long-term time series as well as having an overall good performance.