Loading estimate methods to support integrated watershed-lake modelling: Duffins Creek, Lake Ontario

IF 2 Q3 Environmental Science

Water Quality Research Journal of Canada Pub Date : 2014-05-01 DOI:10.2166/WQRJC.2013.022

W. Booty, I. Wong, G. S. Bowen, P. Fong, Craig McCrimmon, L. León

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引用次数: 8

Abstract

Integrated watershed-lake modelling requires high quality data for calibration and validation. The two-phase loading estimate approach presented here provides a more confident estimate of nutrient loads for these models. Phase 1 establishes the initial range of the loading estimates using averaging algorithms, ratio estimators, event mean concentration (EMC) and regression-based methods. For Duffins Creek outlet, the 2007, 2008 and 2009 ranges are 6.2–30, 22.3–78 and 19.5–242 tonnes of total phosphorus (TP), respectively. After combining the Beale ratio estimator and the regression-based methods in Phase 2, the 2007, 2008 and 2009 ranges are reduced to 13–17, 57–73 and 69–92 tonnes TP, respectively. The reduction represents the 0 and 28.07% upper bound bias of the regression-based method. Applying this information to the regression-based methods, daily and monthly ranges with a lower bound with no adjustment and with upper bound as 1.2807 times the regression-based TP load estimates are established. These loads are then used in integrated watershed-lake model calibration and validation to improve the model predictions.

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支持流域-湖泊综合建模的负荷估算方法:达芬溪，安大略湖

综合流域-湖泊建模需要高质量的数据进行校准和验证。本文提出的两阶段负荷估计方法为这些模型提供了更可靠的养分负荷估计。第一阶段使用平均算法、比率估计器、事件平均浓度(EMC)和基于回归的方法建立负载估计的初始范围。达芬溪出口二零零七年、二零零八年及二零零九年的总磷分别为6.2至30公吨、22.3至78公吨及19.5至242公吨。在结合Beale比率估计值和第二阶段基于回归的方法后，2007年、2008年和2009年的范围分别减少到13-17吨、57-73吨和69-92吨。减少代表0和28.07%的上限偏差的回归为基础的方法。将这些信息应用到基于回归的方法中，建立了基于回归的TP负荷估计的日和月范围，其下限为未调整，上限为1.2807倍。然后将这些载荷用于流域-湖泊综合模型的校准和验证，以提高模型的预测精度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Water Quality Research Journal of Canada WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Water Quality Research Journal publishes peer-reviewed, scholarly articles on the following general subject areas: Impact of current and emerging contaminants on aquatic ecosystems Aquatic ecology (ecohydrology and ecohydraulics, invasive species, biodiversity, and aquatic species at risk) Conservation and protection of aquatic environments Responsible resource development and water quality (mining, forestry, hydropower, oil and gas) Drinking water, wastewater and stormwater treatment technologies and strategies Impacts and solutions of diffuse pollution (urban and agricultural run-off) on water quality Industrial water quality Used water: Reuse and resource recovery Groundwater quality (management, remediation, fracking, legacy contaminants) Assessment of surface and subsurface water quality Regulations, economics, strategies and policies related to water quality Social science issues in relation to water quality Water quality in remote areas Water quality in cold climates The Water Quality Research Journal is a quarterly publication. It is a forum for original research dealing with the aquatic environment, and should report new and significant findings that advance the understanding of the field. Critical review articles are especially encouraged.