Türkiye’de Üçüz Açıklar Olgusunun Analizi: Dinamik Bir Yaklaşım(Analysis Case of Triple Deficits in Turkey: A Dynamic Approach)

Abstract

During the year 1980, the framework of the January 24 Declaration, outward-oriented and liberal economiy policies have been implemented in Turkey. In this process, external deficits have gained persistence except for economic recession and crisis. In addition to this, external deficit has not affected only external imbalance, but also affected economic policies about stability of domestic balance. In this context, purpose of the study, within the framework of pubic balance, saving investment balance and current account balance, predict the interaction between external and internal deficit in Turkey. The stage of application is carried out by applying Vector Autoregressive Model with the quarters of annual data belonging to the periods of 1987:1-2007:3 in Turkey. The analysis of VAR was preferred because it provides multi-faceted relations between variables to predict. The study findings has supported the existence of the relationship between public deficits and current account deficit. Among investment savings rate and current account deficit Grangercausality relationship has not found.