Flujos netos de capital, choques macroeconómicos y activos de reservas. El caso argentino (1994-2013)

Abstract

International reserves have been used as a source of protection against the vulnerability of the balance of payments, or alternatively, as an attempt to keep a competitive real exchange rate and to promote exports. This paper explores the correlation between the net capital flows and reserves. Similarly, the impact of some macroeconomic shocks on that variable is assessed. Estimates are carried out through both, the VEC (Vector Error Correction) models and quarterly data of the Argentine economy for the period 1994-2013. Results show a negative correlation between international reserves and net capital flows (reserve accumulation through current account surpluses). At the same time, the expansionary fiscal policies and the continuing and widespread price increases would adversely affect the reserves.