Technological Unemployment: An approximation to the Latin American Case

Abstract

espanolAvances recientes en Inteligencia Artificial (IA), robotica, sistemas de control, software y tecnologias relacionadas han revivido el debate sobre la influencia que la tecnologia ejerce en el mercado laboral. Hasta el momento, el enfoque de la literatura se ha dado en economias avanzadas. Este documento busca describir y comparar las siguientes variables: gasto domestico en ciencia y tecnologia, PIB per capita, salario minimo nominal, gasto domestico en educacion en siete economias latinoamericanas y su impacto en la tasa de desempleo durante el periodo 1996 a 2011. Se usaron datos panel para medir la relacion de las variables con las tasas de desempleo en la region. Los resultados nos permitieron concluir que la inversion en ciencia y tecnologia en la region no ha alcanzado niveles que reduzcan potencialmente el empleo; por el contrario, la innovacion es vista como una fuente de ganancias en productividad en la mano de obra. Las implicaciones mas amplias de la tecnologia y la automatizacion todavia no son evidentes, sin embargo, tanto las firmas como el sector publico en la region deben prepararse para el desempleo tecnologico masivo que se ha estimado en modelos recientes. EnglishRecent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, control systems, software and related technologies have revived the debate on the influence that technology has on labor markets. So far, the focus of the literature has been on advanced economies. This document aims to analyze the following variables: domestic spending in science and technology, GDP per capita, nominal minimum wage, domestic spending in education and their impact on unemployment rate in seven Latin American countries from 1996 to 2011. Panel data was used to measure the relation of these variables with unemployment rates in the region. The results allowed us to conclude that investment in Science and Technology in the region has not reached levels that potentially reduce employment; on the contrary, innovation is regarded as a source of labor productivity gains. The broader implications of technology and automation are yet to be seen, however, both firms and the public sector in the region must prepare for massive technological unemployement, as predicted by recent models.