Some observations on the influence of recent climate change on the subsidence of shallow foundations

Abstract

Since the introduction by UK insurers of cover for subsidence of the foundations to domestic properties in the early 1970s there has been a considerable rise in both the number of subsidence claims per annum and in the occurrence of claims surges related to clay shrinkage and periods of dry weather. The cost to date of the associated remedial works to shallow foundations runs to billions of pounds. The incidence of subsidence claims and claims surges over the previous three decades has been reviewed in relation to rainfall data from which it is concluded that both phenomena are closely linked to both rainfall deficits and to climate change. It is further concluded, on the basis of the historical data, that surges in subsidence claims can occur with little or no warning, irrespective of the antecedent soil moisture conditions. If current climate changes continue, the pattern of subsidence claims and surges is likely to continue. Whether or not recent events represent permanent climate change or normal vari...