Analysis and modelling of territorial vulnerability to epidemiological diseases in the Wilaya of Batna (Algeria) – case of tuberculosis

Abstract

Some epidemiological situations, because of their magnitude and their propagation dynamics, can escape local or national control. For example, the world is currently experiencing an uncontrollable cross-border spread of the corona virus (Covid-19). The Wilaya of Batna is among the most affected in Algeria by many epidemiological diseases, including tuberculosis, which raises questions about possible causal links between this contagious and often fatal disease and the environmental and socio-economic reality of this territory. We based our study on a number of factors, covering economic, societal and health aspects, which constitute indicators of the standard of living in each of the 61 communes of the Wilaya of Batna. The relationship between the epidemiological status of tuberculosis in these communes and these indicators showed significant correlations and thus confirmed the reliability of the choice of parameters of vulnerability to tuberculosis. To understand their interaction and impact on the disease and its spatial distribution, we used the hierarchical multicriteria analysis (AHP) method, the results of which were implemented in a GIS database. The aim was to provide health and territorial decision makers with a decision support tool. The results show that the spatial distribution of tuberculosis cases which reappeared in the Wilaya of Batna after its eradication since years is in good correlation with the socio-economic situation of each commune of the territory and confirm that this scourge of tuberculosis is closely linked to the degradation of the living conditions of the inhabitants.