Socioenvironmental Vulnerability to Climate Change: Conditions of Coastal Municipalities in Pará State

Q3 Social Sciences

Ambiente e Sociedade Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1590/1809-4422asoc20200167r1vu2021l3ao

Marcos Ronielly da Silva Santos, M. I. Vitorino, L. Pereira, M. A. Pimentel, Ana Flávia Quintão

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The aim of the current study is to analyze the vulnerability of coastal municipalities in Pará State, based on the integration of socioeconomic, epidemiological and climatic indicators. Data were combined to climate scenarios such as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, depending on the Municipal Vulnerability Index (MVI). Results have shown that the Sensitivity (SeI) and Sociodemographic (SdI) Indices had strong influence on the current vulnerability of the investigated municipalities. The association between current vulnerability index and future climate change projections has shown that municipalities located in Marajó Island region are the most vulnerable ones - to the West of the study site, where MVI ranged from 1 (in Afuá) to 0.55 (in Soure), for scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The current results can contribute to the effective adoption of public policies focused on prioritizing the most vulnerable municipalities and on preparing them to deal with adverse aspects of climate change.

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气候变化对社会环境的脆弱性:帕尔州沿海城市的状况

本研究的目的是在综合社会经济、流行病学和气候指标的基础上，分析par州沿海城市的脆弱性。根据城市脆弱性指数(MVI)，将数据与代表性浓度路径(RCP) 4.5和8.5等气候情景相结合。结果表明，敏感性(SeI)和社会人口学(SdI)指数对被调查城市的当前脆弱性有很大影响。当前脆弱性指数与未来气候变化预测之间的关联表明，位于Marajó岛屿地区的市政当局是最脆弱的市政当局——在研究地点以西，在情景4.5和情景8.5中，MVI分别从1(在afu中)到0.55(在source中)。目前的结果有助于有效地采取公共政策，重点放在优先考虑最脆弱的城市，并使它们做好应对气候变化不利方面的准备。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ambiente e Sociedade Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

25 weeks

期刊介绍： La Revista Ambiente & Sociedade é uma publicação cuatrimestral da ANPPAS-Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade, que busca contribuir con la producción del conocimiento en la interfaz de las cuestiones del Ambiente y la Sociedad. Publica textos de colaboradores nacionales e internacionales, mediante evaluación de los editores y pareceres emitidos por asesores ad hoc. La revista publica artículos teóricos y reseñas de libros inéditos em el área interdisciplinar que trata del proceso de interacción entre Sociedad y Medio Ambiente.