The influence of recession and macroeconomic variables on sectorial capital structure

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Revista Contabilidade e Financas Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.1590/1808-057x201908100

Vanessa Rodrigues dos Santos Cardoso, Marília Cordeiro Pinheiro

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones.

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经济衰退和宏观经济变量对行业资本结构的影响

摘要本文的目的是分析最近的经济衰退和宏观经济变量对巴西工业部门负债的影响。这种差异源于人们倾向于按经济部门考察资本结构的反应。然而，必须考虑到行业部门对经济环境变化的反应不同，因为它们有不同的资本结构组成的最优点。所选主题的相关性在于对经济衰退和宏观经济变量对资本结构构成的影响进行部门分析，确定最敏感的部门。它还以适用于当前情况的经典金融理论为基础，有助于在一系列宏观经济变量波动的情况下预测债务的比例，这也是相关的。在本文的主要贡献中，突出的是对巴西公司债务水平的分析，考虑到经济衰退的发生和宏观经济的变化，确定了由于这些因素最容易改变其资本结构的部门。本文基于2010年第一季度至2018年第一季度211家公司的面板数据，采用多元线性回归和两阶段固定效应的方法，提出了6个研究假设，并对其进行了检验。结果显示，巴西最近的经济衰退与所研究部门的资本结构有关，通货膨胀只对卫生部门有影响。基本材料部门的负债水平受经济波动的影响最大，而电话和公用事业部门的负债水平受经济波动的影响最小。此外，本文还验证了公司特定变量在决定资本结构方面比宏观变量具有更大的相关性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Revista Contabilidade e Financas Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Revista Contabilidade & Finanças (RC&F) publishes inedited theoretical development papers and theoretical-empirical studies in Accounting, Controllership, Actuarial Sciences and Finance. The journal accepts research papers in different paradigms and using various research methods, provided that they are consistent and relevant for the development of these areas. Besides research papers, its main focus, traditional papers and manuscripts in other formats that can contribute to communicate new knowledge to the community are also published.