Economic and Environmental Impacts of Fracking: A Case Study of the Marcellus Shale

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS
Timothy J. Considine, Nicholas B. Considine, Robert Watson
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

While many studies examine the individual costs and benefits from fracking, there are no studies that provide a unified comparison of costs and benefits. This study attempts to fill this void by conducting a cost–benefit analysis of developing natural gas from the Marcellus shale formation in Pennsylvania. Using more than seven thousand well records, this study estimates production decline curves for vintages of Marcellus wells and their productivity growth over time. The value added created from constructing and operating a recent average Marcellus well is estimated. Environmental impacts are estimated based upon several thousand records of environmental violations impacting air, land, and water resources. Air emissions are estimated during the life cycle of the well from drilling, hydraulic fracturing, production, transportation, and consumption. Using estimates of environmental damage costs, the economic value of these environmental impacts is estimated. The economic benefits, including the environmental benefits from displacing coal, range from $14 to over $30 million with an expected value of $23 million per well. These estimates are likely a lower bound because they do not include the benefits that arise from lower natural gas due to shale energy development. Environmental impact costs range from $162 to $755 thousand per well with the largest impacts arising from diesel use by water pumps and trucks, forest disruption from pipeline construction, and methane lost during flow back and downstream methane leakage. These environmental costs were estimated using relatively high estimates for environmental impacts and damage costs. Unknown impacts may remain, however, from unreported environmental violations and from possible long-term health impacts. Nevertheless, this study finds that the economic benefits from fracking substantially exceed the costs of known environmental impacts.
水力压裂对经济和环境的影响:以马塞勒斯页岩为例
虽然许多研究都考察了水力压裂的成本和收益,但没有研究对成本和收益进行统一比较。本研究试图通过对开发宾夕法尼亚州Marcellus页岩地层天然气的成本效益分析来填补这一空白。该研究使用了7000多口井的记录,估计了Marcellus井的产量下降曲线及其随时间的生产率增长。对Marcellus井的新建和运营所创造的附加价值进行了估算。环境影响的估计是基于数千个影响空气、土地和水资源的环境违法记录。在油井的整个生命周期中,从钻井、水力压裂、生产、运输到消费,都可以估算出空气排放量。利用对环境损害成本的估计,估计这些环境影响的经济价值。经济效益,包括取代煤炭带来的环境效益,从1400万美元到3000多万美元不等,每口井的预期价值为2300万美元。这些估计可能是一个下限,因为它们不包括页岩能源开发带来的天然气价格下降带来的好处。每口井的环境影响成本从162美元到75.5万美元不等,其中最大的影响来自水泵和卡车使用柴油、管道建设对森林的破坏、回流过程中的甲烷损失和下游甲烷泄漏。这些环境成本是根据相对较高的环境影响和损害成本估算出来的。然而,由于未报告的环境违法行为和可能的长期健康影响,可能仍然存在未知的影响。然而,这项研究发现,水力压裂的经济效益大大超过了已知环境影响的成本。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
3
期刊介绍: Environmental and resource economics has become a broad topic making connections with many other subdisciplines in economics as well as the natural and physical sciences. It has also experience a significant growth in research such that the literature is exploding in terms of the number of topics addressed, the number of methodological approaches being applied and the sheer number of articles being written. Coupled with the high degree of specialization that characterizes modern academic research, this proliferation of topics and methodologies makes it impossible for anyone, even those who specialize in the subject, to keep up with developments in the field.
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