Has COVID-19 caused a change in the dynamics of the unemployment rate? The case of North America and continental Europe

IF 2.3 0 GEOGRAPHY
Judit Kapás
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

This study raises the question of whether the COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the dynamics of the unemployment rate. More specifically, this problem implies an analysis of whether any sign of a structural break is detectable in the time series of the unemployment rate. To obtain some "firsthand" estimates on whether it is likely that a structural break will occur in the labour market, this study performs several one-step-ahead forecasts based on the best ARIMA model on the time series of the unemployment rate, which takes advantage of the availability of the unemployment rate data for five quarters following the pandemic outbreak. Interestingly, the results document practically no difference in the impact of the pandemic on the labour market in countries with different labour market flexibility. Neither North America (United States of America and Canada) with a flexible labour market nor continental Europe (Germany and Austria) with a regulated labour market experienced any regime change in the unemployment rate time series.
COVID-19是否导致了失业率动态的变化?北美和欧洲大陆的情况
这项研究提出了一个问题,即COVID-19大流行是否会对失业率的动态产生长期影响。更具体地说,这个问题意味着要分析在失业率的时间序列中是否存在结构性断裂的迹象。为了获得关于劳动力市场是否可能出现结构性断裂的一些"第一手"估计,本研究利用大流行爆发后五个季度的失业率数据,根据失业率时间序列的最佳ARIMA模型进行了几次提前一步的预测。有趣的是,调查结果显示,在劳动力市场灵活性不同的国家,疫情对劳动力市场的影响几乎没有差别。具有灵活劳动力市场的北美(美利坚合众国和加拿大)和具有管制劳动力市场的欧洲大陆(德国和奥地利)在失业率时间序列方面都没有发生任何制度变化。
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来源期刊
Regional Statistics
Regional Statistics GEOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
52.20%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: The periodical welcomes studies, research and conference reports, book reviews, discussion articles reflecting on our former articles. The periodical welcomes articles from the following areas: regional statistics, regional science, social geography, regional planning, sociology, geographical information science Goals of the journal: high-level studies in the field of regional analyses, to encourage the exchange of views and discussion among researchers in the area of regional researches.
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