Scenario-based vision building of nuclear energy

Abstract

Nuclear energy policies in Korea have been developed without considering uncertainties. Those were developed from the trend extrapolation that merely projected rapidly increasing energy consumption. However, there is a concern that such a rosy plan cannot respond effectively to many uncertainties in the forces shaping the future of nuclear energy. A new vision building process for nuclear energy should be established in order to take into account these uncertainties. The vision building process with combination of backcasting with exploratory scenarios was proposed to establish a long-term vision for nuclear energy for 2050 in Korea. First, alternative scenarios were suggested in consideration of future uncertainties. A desirable future of nuclear energy was then projected upon consideration of these various scenarios and a vision was suggested. Finally, key technologies and policy directions necessary to achieve the vision were identified. This work is expected to help policy makers to prepare for the future in the face of uncertainties.