'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a small island

Abstract

Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development and MCM interviews). Overall, the methodology proved to be successful in informing preferred futures for Flores. One of the findings was the elevated uncertainty associated with each scenario. The project showed the limits of expert knowledge for the appraisal of multidisciplinary holistic scenarios, contradicting the distinction between expert and lay knowledge holders.