Carbon Intensities of Economies from the Perspective of Learning Curves

IF 0.8 Q4 GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
H. Pacini, S. Silveira
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

While some countries have achieved considerable development, many others still lack accessto the goods and services considered standard in the modern society. As CO2 emissions and development are often correlated, this paper employs the theoretical background of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the learning curves toolkit to analyze how carbon intensities have changed as countries move towards higher development (and cumulative wealth) levels. The EKC concept is then tested with the methodology of learning curves for the period between 1971 and 2010, so as to capture a dynamic picture of emissions trends and development. Results of both analyses reveal that empirical data fails to provide direct evidence of an EKC for emissions and development. The data does show, however, an interesting pattern in the dispersion of emissions levels for countries within the same HDI categories. While data does not show that countries grow more polluting during intermediary development stages, it does provide evidence that countries become more heterogeneous in their emission intensities as they develop, later re-converging to lower emission intensities at higher HDI levels. Learning rates also indicate heterogeneity among developing countries and relative convergence among developed countries. Given the heterogeneity of development paths among countries, the experiences of those which are managing to develop at low carbon intensities can prove valuable examples for ongoing efforts in climate change mitigation, especially in the developing world.
学习曲线视角下的经济体碳强度
虽然一些国家已经取得了相当大的发展,但许多其他国家仍然无法获得被认为是现代社会标准的商品和服务。由于二氧化碳排放和发展往往是相关的,本文采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的理论背景和学习曲线工具包来分析碳强度是如何随着国家走向更高的发展(和累积财富)水平而变化的。然后用1971年至2010年期间的学习曲线方法对EKC概念进行测试,以便捕捉排放趋势和发展的动态画面。两种分析的结果都表明,经验数据未能提供排放和发展的EKC的直接证据。然而,数据确实显示了在同一人类发展指数类别的国家中排放水平分散的有趣模式。虽然数据没有显示各国在中间发展阶段的污染程度增加,但它确实提供了证据表明,随着发展,各国的排放强度变得更加异质性,后来在较高的人类发展指数水平上重新趋同于较低的排放强度。学习率也表明发展中国家之间的差异和发达国家之间的相对趋同。考虑到各国发展道路的异质性,设法以低碳强度发展的国家的经验可以证明是当前减缓气候变化努力的宝贵范例,特别是在发展中世界。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Challenges in Sustainability
Challenges in Sustainability GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
6
审稿时长
4 weeks
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