Venture Capitalists' Insight, or the Ability to Describe the Formal Rules of Business Evaluation?

Abstract

This research tests the proposition that venture capitalists' insight and the high consensus found among venture capitalists (VCs) are based on a causal theory shared within the subculture. The methodology follows two non-overlapping approaches: conjoint analysis and a survey. In the first case, less experienced VCs (trainees) were asked to predict—with their subjective weightings of criteria—the senior VCs' holistic judgements to fund new business proposals. In the second approach, senior VCs and less experienced VCs were asked to rate their degree of agreement with seventy-three heuristics or rules of thumb collected within the British venture capital subculture. A control group was also used to test if agreement was beyond chance. Both correlation of predictions of VC trainees about the holistic judgements of senior VCs, and comparison of the level of agreement/disagreement with the heuris tics indicate that the VCs share consensual cognitive structures. This study discusses the implication of a consensual causal theory for the under standing of insight or introspection, attribution of blame to entrepreneurs in failed businesses, and the learning and perpetuation of the rules of thumb or heuristics within the subculture.