Stock Returns, Trading Volumes and Market Volatility: A Study on the Indian Stock Market

Abstract

This paper aims at investigating the effect of stock returns on trading volume and the trading volume on volatility. To accomplish the study objective, daily data from 1 April 2014 to 30 June 2020 are used. The GLS model is employed to investigate the contemporaneous relationship between the stock returns and trading volume. The EGARCH (1, 1) model is used to explore the volume–volatility relationships, and the causal relationship of stock returns–trading volumes–volatility is attained through the Granger causality test. The study finds that the effect of stock returns on trading volume is asymmetric. It indicates that the negative price changes have a less considerable impact on trading volume than the non-negative price changes. The study also supports the mixture of the distribution hypothesis that postulated the volume–volatility relationship to be positive. The volatility persistence level remains high, even after the conditional volatility model incorporates trading volumes as an exogenous variable. Further, the analysis also reveals that stock return causes trading volume and not vice versa; however, trading volumes cause return volatility. JEL Codes: G10, G12, C22