The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS
Gab-Je Jo
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in deterIn this paper I investigate the link between Korea’s trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in determining the bilateral trade balance between Korea and China, nor does it improve the disaggregated trade balance. This is because the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance depends on the nature of the commodity. Especially if the commodity is an intermediate good or a raw material, the exchange rate elasticity in trade balance could be inelastic because the demand for the intermediate good is a derived demand from the final good.
汇率在韩中商品贸易中的作用
在本文中,我调查了韩国的贸易平衡和汇率之间的联系,使用汇总和分类数据。采用协整的边界检验方法和误差修正模型,当我使用总贸易余额作为因变量时,我发现短期内不支持j曲线;同时也发现,从长期来看,汇率对贸易平衡有显著的正向影响。然而,无论是短期还是长期,我都发现汇率在决定韩国贸易平衡和汇率之间的关系中都没有发挥重要作用。本文使用汇总和分类数据调查了韩国贸易平衡和汇率之间的联系。采用协整的边界检验方法和误差修正模型,当我使用总贸易余额作为因变量时,我发现短期内不支持j曲线;同时也发现,从长期来看,汇率对贸易平衡有显著的正向影响。然而,从短期和长期来看,我发现汇率对韩中双边贸易平衡的决定作用并不显著,也没有改善分类贸易平衡。这是因为贸易收支的汇率弹性取决于商品的性质。特别是当商品是中间产品或原材料时,贸易平衡中的汇率弹性可能是非弹性的,因为对中间产品的需求是从最终产品衍生出来的需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
自引率
12.50%
发文量
10
审稿时长
10 weeks
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