Secondary Household Covid-19 Transmission Modelling of Students Returning Home from University

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-11-13 DOI:10.1101/2020.11.11.20229559

Paul Robert Harper, Joshua W. Moore, Thomas E. Woolley

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Abstract

We estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes with other occupants. Using a Monte-Carlo method and data derived from UK sources, we predict that an infectious student would, on average, infect 0.94 other household members. Or, as a rule of thumb, each infected student would generate (just less than) one secondary within-household infection. The total number of secondary cases for all returning students is dependent on the virus prevalence within the student population at the time of their departure from campus back home. Correspondingly, we provide results for prevalence ranging from 0.5% to 15%, which is based on observed minimum and maximum estimates from Cardiff University's asymptomatic testing service. Although the proposed estimation method is general and robust, the results are sensitive to the input data. We therefore provide Matlab code and a helpful online app (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app) that can be used to estimate numbers of secondary infections based on local parameter values

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高校返乡学生Covid-19二次家庭传播模型研究

我们估计了由潜在传染性学生从大学返回私人住宅与其他居住者引起的继发性Covid-19感染的数量。使用蒙特卡罗方法和来自英国的数据，我们预测一个有传染性的学生平均会感染0.94名其他家庭成员。或者，根据经验，每个受感染的学生将在家庭内部产生(略少于)一次继发性感染。所有返校学生的继发性病例总数取决于他们离开校园返回家园时学生群体中的病毒流行情况。相应地，我们提供的患病率范围为0.5%至15%，这是基于卡迪夫大学无症状检测服务观察到的最小和最大估计值。虽然所提出的估计方法具有通用性和鲁棒性，但其结果对输入数据比较敏感。因此，我们提供了Matlab代码和一个有用的在线应用程序(http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app)，可用于根据本地参数值估计二次感染的数量

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.